SPEAKER_01 0:00

Dustin, I'm excited about today's episode. You know why, right? Why? I mean, it's Rivian Day, right?

SPEAKER_02 0:08

It's tomorrow. Today's Bumble Day.

SPEAKER_01 0:11

Tomorrow's yes. I'm excited for Bumble's uh quarter uh as well. Although I won't be able to dive into it until after this podcast, unfortunately. We'll we'll hopefully get the results. But there's a bunch of um Rivian things that happened today, including a potential leak of the pricing information by Ars Technica. Uh so thanks to them, we might have an early preview of what the Rivian R2 pricing is going to be, which we'll talk about in depth a little in a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 0:44

Absolutely. And I'm hoping uh if we delay the bumble conversation towards the end of the episode, maybe we'll be able to run through the the deck if we have it. Yes. Hopefully, yeah. Yeah. We should be able to do that. And it's episode 30, which means it's 29 more episodes than I thought we would do.

SPEAKER_01 1:07

You have no uh you had no hope in us or faith in us. No. That's no. I this I I thought this was a short-term investment.

SPEAKER_02 1:15

What's what's what's our agenda for today besides Ruby and Bumble? So the other big topic is talking about Robin Hood. They had their take flight event last week and they announced a bunch of stuff. So I think we should maybe start there. Um so did were you able to watch the event?

SPEAKER_01 1:36

Uh I I think I got highlights of it. And I uh what first I got excited uh because I didn't watch it live, um, but I got excited because of the um platinum card. So I have the Amex Platinum card, which um the annual fee just went to$900 a year. Uh and the primary reason to have this card is for the uh access to the airport lounges. Uh, if you travel a lot, that's really nice. And then there's a bunch of different perks that add up to usually around the same as the annual fee, maybe a little bit more if you use all of them. Uh and um anyway, so uh I I've had the Amex Platinum card, and uh Robinhood introduced their own platinum card, uh, which is kind of exciting. Uh but should we should we start talking about it now or was there other yeah, so so the the Robinhood Platinum card will have a$700 annual fee, a 1% cash back instead of the 3% that the gold card has. And then it has uh 5% on I believe air and then 10% on hotel if you go through their travel portal. Yeah. Which which is uh great. Um and then it has a handful of other perks, like uh they'll give you uh what what is it? Actually, if you have them in front of you, maybe you can list it.

SPEAKER_02 3:04

I don't have it in front of me, but I they there's a$300 travel credit, uh, there's a$500 hotel credit, the$500 is for luxury hotels booked through their portal. Otherwise, I believe it's like a 200 or 250 uh hotel credit for regular hotels booked through their portal. Um, both of those credits, the travel and hotel credit, I believe, are split in six-month increments. So you get half of it the first six months and then second half in the in the latter six months.

SPEAKER_01 3:39

Um there's a DoorDash credit, and there's some other uh cool credits. So credit, yeah. Yeah, there's a bunch of credits. So the the credits uh are probably a little bit more useful than the MX credits, is sort of like the assessment that I got, and uh and they add up to more, you know, close to like$3,000 worth of credits. But you know, if roughly I would suspect the average person might use$1,000 of the credits, which makes the card relatively free, maybe, or close to free. Um, but here's what I love about this card versus their gold card, right? So this card has a$700 annual fee attached to it. This is how MX makes the bulk of its money, is is that those annual fees. Uh and then uh because of the 1% cashback as opposed to 3%, they are not losing money on this card. So the way I see the gold card for Robinhood because of the 3% cashback on a high uh net worth individual who sort of pays off their, or not even a high net worth individual, but anybody who sort of pays off their monthly bill at the end of the month, uh, Robinhood was probably losing money on the 3% cashback on the gold card. Whereas on this one, because of the 1% cashback, they won't be losing money. They should have some uh buffer as far as margin. Uh and then the$700 annual fee is going to actually generate some meaningful revenues because every million potential customers for the Robin Hood Platinum, and I'm not sure if there are a million people out there who would get it, but for every million, there would be an additional$700 million worth of revenue, um, relatively high margin revenue, because I suspect those um those agreements that they have worked out probably represent less than 30-40% of the cost of the annual fee for them. So, you know, this is this is an another example of Robin Hood introducing another great product, um, just another checkbox on on the list of continued additional financial products that just continue to do well. Um, and then besides that, in that same event, they also announced uh custodial accounts for kids, which uh I love that. Um they announced that they will have um trust accounts, which again for high net worth individuals, trust accounts is a pretty big deal. And you know, a lot of people have uh their assets under some kind of a trust. So the fact that they'll they'll be able to um accommodate customers with trusts uh is a good thing. So all around, lots of good stuff there.

SPEAKER_02 6:20

Yeah, with the custodial accounts, the presentation really highlighted their UTMA and UGMA, that's what it's called, uh accounts, which are like tax advantage counts for kids. The the tax advantage is um up to a certain dollar amount, it's 0% tax. Then the next bracket is 10% tax, and then the next bracket is matching whatever the parent's bracket is. Um so there's a a little benefit there. The downside of those accounts, by the way, is they count uh against uh receiving financial aid when your kid is ready for college, as opposed to uh putting money into a 529 account that does not count against uh financial aid. And Robinhood also announced down the road they're gonna support five two nine accounts in addition to those trust accounts.

SPEAKER_01 7:09

Right, right. Um so they're just adding all the stuff that they've been missing from a financial um institution perspective, which I just continue to love their execution. Uh they have high visibility events to launch their products. I don't know of any other company. I don't know. That was crazy.

SPEAKER_02 7:28

Like it was really well done. Like, yeah, you you should you should just watch some snippets because that they really lead into the okay, good. The yeah, the airline theme. It was great.

SPEAKER_01 7:38

Yeah. In a way, it was a little confusing because it did seem like they're about to introduce Robin Hood Air, which is the the entire time they sort of like referred to it. I think maybe that maybe that's coming down the road. Yeah, well, it they pre-announced it if that's the case, but um, but yeah, uh their events get a lot of viewership, which is fantastic from a visibility and marketing perspective. This company has it down. When was the last time you watched any event from e-trade or Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley or anybody else for that matter? Um, so as they announce new products, those products are actually getting used. Uh their banking product, which is still in beta, it has like it has very limited availability for uh for very early customers. Most people don't have access to Robinhood banking, but these guys just broke a billion dollars of assets in their banking um uh uh platform. So uh I I I love Robinhood's execution. It's it's fantastic. In fact, uh, you know, I'm I just continue to be more and more bullish on this company.

SPEAKER_02 8:47

So um yeah. Going back to your keynote point, I think you're spot on because what's the number one company uh that produces keynotes that people will watch is Apple, right? And I think Tesla, maybe and then maybe Robinhood is third up there? Well, like right. So where I think what made what became very clear watching this presentation is Robinhood is trying to be the Apple of finance. Right. Not right. So like not only does Apple have the iPhone, the iPad, the MacBook, where they provide a product for for all your needs, which Robinhood's slowly doing, but they're also the default for a lot of users, right? Like you don't need to think about what computer to get or what phone to get, you just get whatever the Apple one is. And that's where Robinhood wants to position themselves. And they're doing a great job uh with each individual product. And I think the harder part that they need to and they're actively working on this, but this is the real challenge is how do they become that default brand? Which by the way, you mentioned Tesla. Tesla is also that brand for for a lot of people buying a car where they're just gonna go with Tesla. So I I like I think right now, obviously, Robinhood's brand and design are very strong, but I think it almost leans a little too advanced, where they need to start adjusting their at least marketing to be a little bit more inviting, a little bit more welcoming. And it's as simple as switching from dark mode as the default to light mode, you know. Um just to get more people into uh the ecosystem. Yeah, that's interesting.

SPEAKER_01 10:38

Now you you mentioned, I think uh on the agenda, I saw that um uh you wanted to also talk about X Money. Um, I actually haven't looked into what what X Money is.

SPEAKER_02 10:48

Um so X, yeah, so X, the social network, um, started doing a like beta rollout of X Money, which has been Elon's been talking about for a while. Um, you know, updating X to be the everything app and being able to do uh banking and peer-to-peer transactions like a Venmo right in inside of X. So my and the most interesting thing about it to me is at least for now, they're offering six percent interest on your your banking, which I don't know how sustainable that is. I don't know how they're doing it, but um that was that was the most like unique feature um that I could tell that this provided. But my question to you was like, do you think that this is potentially a threat to Robin Hood in any way?

SPEAKER_01 11:44

Well, let's talk about that six percent. So so are they um basically introducing banking capabilities for for just a yeah, moment. So um it's not a brokerage account in the same way that Robinhood is a brokerage.

SPEAKER_02 11:56

No, it's not investing, at least not right now. It's just banking and then that Venmo capability of sending people money.

SPEAKER_01 12:03

Of sending money to others. So it's sort of like PayPal or whatever. So, I mean, one way to think about the 6% is that you know, um 3.5% is roughly what's normal. So um it's sort of like Robin Hood's two and a half percent bonus or two percent or three percent bonus at different times that they've done for you to transfer money over. But uh, you know, they're sort of doing it a little bit at a time, and all they have to do it for is one year, and it would be the equivalent of the two percent extra. Um, so it's not that costly from a customer acquisition standpoint, assuming that the eventual value of each customer pays off uh those two percent, and then they can bring the six percent down to the normal three and a half percent range in a year. So that part uh while it's not sustainable long term, it's it's an easy way to sort of get uh you know lots of customers quickly and potentially higher value accounts more quickly because the assumption is that you know, if you you wouldn't care about six percent if you have$200, but you might if you have$20,000, right? So uh it makes a little bit more sense there. Um as far as how that compares to Robinhood, like it's very difficult to uh penetrate an existing leader in a particular space. And one of the things that you know, the reason everybody is not already on Robinhood, for example, is uh is because it's very hard to switch, get people to switch from something else to your platform. So uh Robinhood, it has taken them roughly 15 years to get to where they are by offering a significantly better platform for everything that they have entered into for a significantly lower cost than everything else that already exists. When Robinhood initially started doing brokerage accounts, they were offering free trades when the average um uh brokerage was charging$10 per trade. So uh, you know, if you had a hundred trades per year, that's a thousand dollars of savings. Or if you had a hundred trades per per month, that's a thousand dollars of savings per month for for you, right? Uh if you switched over to Robinhood. So they they've given you a lot of great reason to um switch over to Robinhood. Now, would somebody switch from Robinhood to X money, assuming like they offered all the same things that Robinhood offered, which they don't, obviously, but let's just assume for a moment. They the likelihood of that would be very, very low because there it's like hard to get lower pricing than Robinhood. Like Robinhood's pricing on everything is so good that it makes it very, very compelling to stay on their platform or switch from more expensive platforms to Robinhood as opposed to switching off of Robinhood. So I don't see X money making a significant dent. Um, newcomers just generally don't have uh that kind of an advantage unless there's some kind of disruptive technology that gives them an advantage. And um again, I don't know enough about X money to to know if that there is some kind of disruptive technology that's coming with it. But on the surface level, I would my guess is that it will have zero impact on Robinhood's business.

SPEAKER_02 15:20

Yeah, I think the most interesting advantage X Money has is the network effect because everyone has an X account, they're able to pull off the peer-to-peer payments, which you can't really do unless if everyone's on your platform. Otherwise, you have to use uh something like Zell. Um and I don't think Robinhood currently supports peer-to-peer payments. I mean, they maybe support Zelda. They don't.

SPEAKER_01 15:44

But if they introduce that, it would probably cross them. Here's a disadvantage, though, on X. Despite lots of people having X accounts, no one has financial connections on their account. Very few people have financial connections on their X accounts. So uh myself included, despite having a real account. And then if you look at the replies on the vast majority of popular accounts, you'll see that the vast majority of people have what is largely anonymous accounts, meaning they're they're they're going use they're using pseudonymes or not the real name or real information. So again, a platform where you're just spewing out your random ideas or maybe being openly racist on because you can be hide behind an anonymous account is not the same platform that you're probably going to send money to someone where you have to have the know your customer uh criteria where you know banking institutions or financial institutions have to know their customers in depth. So the moment you want to sort of cross that uh financial aspect of X, they're gonna know everything about you. You can't just have an anonymous account. So um, so yeah, I just you know, if you take X's, I don't know, would they have like 500 million accounts, it would probably be down to single-digit millions, maybe 10 million accounts where um people are using their real information. If that uh that would even shock me. And then of those, nobody has financial connections to those accounts. You still have to provide all of that information to them in order to connect your bank and all that stuff. So I mean it's an uphill battle for sure. It's an interesting idea by by Elon, but yeah, right.

SPEAKER_02 17:32

Well, two other stretch, I guess. Two other announcements I want to hit that that uh Robinhood talked about during the take uh take flight event is in addition to having control over custodial accounts, you also have control over your spouse's accounts. And it's a pretty cool setup where like you could with a QR code, you could share whatever accounts you want with your spouse. Yes. And not only do you see what's in the accounts, but you could see in aggregate, like how many shares of Rivian do we own together? And you could you could trade those um together or separately, and you could choose if you want to share as like a view only, or if you could actually like manage the trades. So that was another really cool and well-executed feature. Um, and the other feature I want to call out is they announced early dividend payments, where what they're claiming is you could receive dividend payments on average up to 17 days earlier. Yeah, which is pretty interesting if if they could pull that off.

SPEAKER_01 18:36

Yeah, I I saw that as well. And I mean that that's a cool feature. I mean, don't get me wrong, that particular one doesn't excite me in any way because anybody who has enough money where the dividend payments um make a meaningful difference doesn't really care about the two weeks ahead. Like, what are they gonna do? Go spend it, you know, you know, like so either your dividend payments are super tiny. Uh yeah, I mean you could invest it, but like it's just not an in, you know, like, oh my god, I'm gonna get one annual return uh two weeks sooner than uh than I would otherwise. But but yeah, I mean it it's I love that they're innovative in this way, right? Exactly. They just they just make the bar to do anything better than them so much harder, right? So uh when you bring the price down of something down to free, no one can go below that. You know what I mean? So that that makes the bar very, very difficult to um to compete with. And and that overall, that's what I love about Robin Hood. And Vlad is just killing it in that respect. I love that.

SPEAKER_02 19:43

Absolutely. Okay, let's move on to Rivian. So we have a couple of things to talk about with Rivian. We have the obviously tomorrow, tomorrow, not today. Yes, tomorrow is Rivian Day.

SPEAKER_01 19:57

Tomorrow is the official R2 pricing, yes, but that's not gonna stop us from speculating today. Yes. And we got some additional, we got some uh insider information potentially because Ars Technica, uh, one of the publications that presumably had access to Rivian's pricing information, accidentally published and then unpublished an article, which may or may not be accurate. We don't know, but what we do know is this is the pricing information that they uh they released. So this is uh I'm I'm labeling it speculation of R2 pricing because we don't know if this is for sure, but it appears, um, and I assume you can see my screen, Dustin, right? Yes. Um we expect the launch edition, which this is sort of like uh been relatively well known, that it's gonna have over 300 miles of range. Um it appears that they kind of uh confirmed that it's gonna have 330 miles of range, uh, 3.6 seconds, zero to 60, which we kind of knew. This is the part we did not know. 57,990. I had speculated that this could go all the way up to 65,000 and they would still sell it. I was hoping that they would be um at just shy of 60. Previously, I had speculated that it would be probably come in at 59,990 and is coming in potentially, potentially$2,000 even below that. So$57,990 is an incredible price for that launch edition configuration. Um, it's on par with the performance edition of the Model Y, same price, not$5,000 more, despite delivering uh everything uh in a potentially much better package, off-road capabilities. And uh yeah, so what are your thoughts on this?

SPEAKER_02 21:53

I think if if this turns out to be the case, right. It's very exciting if it turns out to be the case. Uh Um I I look all we have to do is wait for tomorrow. So I'm just holding my breath until then and we'll see. Um I also like by the way, because I don't think you called this out, that the actual starting price is going to be under that 45k mark.

SPEAKER_01 22:18

Because 44,990. But but they have announced that well again, according to this article, that would be late 2027. So we're almost two years away from that. Um right.

SPEAKER_02 22:30

Yeah. But it what I like about that is one, you have other car companies say, you know, this is the starting price, and then by the time the car actually hits the road, the price is much higher than that. Um that was in play as a as a possibility. And then the other uh angle of this, which I I never bought, was uh I don't know if you saw on Twitter some people were getting a little frazzled because they removed the 45k starting price on their website this week because they started promoting the event. People were like, Oh, is it not gonna start at 45k? And I was just like as a designer, it's just sometimes you want to highlight different information, you know. Right. And that's all that was, at least yeah.

SPEAKER_01 23:14

I I didn't read anything into that uh for sure, but but what one thing I would say is that uh um I well, I mean, okay, so so lots of things here, but by the way, I've also updated the um long range and the all-wheel drive dual motor 330-mile range uh with a lower 53k or 54k starting price. One thing I would say is that each one of these configurations, it's the starting price for that configuration. So if you change the tires or the interior color or maybe even the exterior color, that those are those type of things are still going to be on top of this price or the starting price for that configuration. So just do expect that if you go even with the launch edition, but change the color from whatever default color it comes with at the 58k price, you might have to pay an extra 2,000, or you might have to pay an extra uh uh amount of money for changing the interior color or uh the wheels on these things. So you might still end up with a$65,000 configuration despite the$58,000 starting price, but just something to keep in mind. Um the other thing I would say is that I suspect that uh the demand for the R2 is high enough to where they will be able to sell the launch edition for at least the next six months, maybe, maybe, maybe much longer, just because manufacturing capacity is also relatively small over the next six months as they expand. So I don't know. I think they could if I was to speculate, I I think they could sell a hundred thousand at of the launch editions before they need to introduce the other editions. And that might put them well into 2027 before um they would they would need to introduce other editions. But again, I have uh I'm just going off of pure speculation.

SPEAKER_02 25:11

I don't know. And another uh piece of news that came out today is Rivian is uh going to stop producing their cheapest trims for the R1. Right. Do you think that's going to push more consumers towards the R2, or do you think it's going to push consumers kind of up towards higher terms of the R1?

SPEAKER_01 25:32

Well, one of the things that I like about that is that there should be a distinction between the R1 and the R2. So I think that that um that price or just eliminating the uh the entry-level versions of the R1 makes sense because it'll help with their margins. It will uh create a complete distinction between the two of them. Uh and I think what what I'd like to see for from them long term is to make the R1 the flagship, just make it better, make it more luxurious, charge more for it since you have the R2 anyway at the lower uh uh starting price, um, and just make the um R1 the uh what is that uh vehicle, the the Range Rover of the of the the Range Rover replacement of the Rivian line. So um I think that's a great move. I think that that's a great move, irrespective of what it of what it does. If it pushes the sort of lower end R1 purchasers to R2 and makes the higher end R1 purchasers like, okay, I like the fact that nobody else can easily get into this because the price point is higher, right? That's the reason people buy a Range Rover or a Porsche or whatever, right? Uh is because they want a car that not everyone can afford. So um part of it has to do with that. So I I think uh I think it's a good good move on their part.

SPEAKER_02 26:57

Yeah, and I like that in theory it's gonna also simplify manufacturing of the R1, just having less uh different SKUs, less SKUs, absolutely.

SPEAKER_01 27:06

There was another announcement by Rivian, by the way. Were were we getting off of the R2? Or we're we're going to this now. So you can Okay, go for it.

SPEAKER_02 27:14

Yeah, you you tell the announcement and then so Mind Robotics, which uh Rivian has a significant uh ownership stake in, and RJ is the founder and CEO of that company as well, I think. Um he's the founder for sure, not sure about the CEO. Okay, he they raised uh$500 million. Um, so and I mean you did a whole post on this on X and on Earnings Hub insights.

SPEAKER_01 27:44

Yeah. So uh I I love this. First of all, here's how uh that company came to be. Um remind me the name of the company, something Mind Robotics, I believe. Mind Robotics. I I keep forgetting the mind part. So the way Mind Robotics came to be is that the robotics machines on factory floors are extremely dumb. Basically, they can take a particular part from one place to another, you know, place it in another place. They can do automatic welding or whatever, but in the exact same spot every single time. You change something up, they're not smart enough to figure anything out. Now, the approach that Elon and Tesla are taking to sort of solving manufacturing problems is that, well, you need humanoid robots with intelligence that have the dexterity and hands that humans have. Uh, that's that's their approach. That's great. I think humanoid robots are definitely going to do well in the long term. Uh, but in in the shorter term, uh another area that might do well is similar type of robotics that is already on the manufacturing floor, but with some level of intelligence. Um, meaning if these robotics can have uh uh can figure things out. Well, if this thing, this part has moved a little bit and I need to rotate my arm or pick it up in a different way, can I do that and figure it out and still be able to get the job done? Uh, just go ahead and do that autonomously, essentially, without having to be reprogrammed so that they can be smarter robotics on the manufacturing line. Um, RJ has talked about this in past interviews and basically spotted this as a potential issue. And there aren't companies solving these problems. And uh he figured, you know, if we're gonna need to solve these problems ourselves for our own manufacturing, we may as well sell those solutions to others as well. And that's how uh Mind Robotics has come about and they've spun it off as a separate company. Now, the fact that Excel and uh Andreessen Horowitz, which are two of the top VC firms, have invested$500 million into this company. Well, that's just additional uh confirmation that A, this is a real problem, that these companies are not investing so that they can double their money. VCs invest only with the expectation that they can 10x or greater their money. Uh, and those two in particular have great track records. Sometimes they 100x or 1000x their money. Um, so so Mind Robotics uh just gets a significant amount of credibility just from that alone. Um, and usually when they're making a like$500 million investment, uh they're generally buying somewhere around 25% of the company. So you can extrapolate that Mind Robotics is probably being valued at roughly$2 billion. Uh, and uh, of course, one of the major shareholders is going to be Rivian. So Ribian uh shareholders should benefit from uh the valuation of this company, which just goes on their books. It's not like it's going to generate profits or anything like that for them or cash anytime soon. But that is a great asset to have, especially as that asset uh makes its own revenues and valuation just continues to go up. So that's one. Another benefit is that uh Mind Robotics is likely going to use the same Rivian uh chips that they just introduced for AI in their robotics products. So the volume of chips is probably going to be significantly higher because of mind robotics than just Rivian vehicles using them. So that is an additional benefit. It lowers the cost per chip because you know, volume is going to be higher. Uh so that's another benefit. Um, then you know, just the fact that uh RJ is able to go right raise half a billion dollars for a brand new startup that hasn't even proved it, proven anything or has customers or any of that stuff just goes to show you that there's access to capital if and when Ribbian needs it again, um, which it likely will, but I'm I'm just saying that Rivian has a very, very low probability of bankruptcy because there is access to capital. And this just shows that uh RJ, there are people who believe in RJ with huge checkbooks that can write these type of checks. Um, so all of that is goodness uh from my perspective about Rivian. And um, yeah, I love it. What are your thoughts on this thing?

SPEAKER_02 32:17

Um, I don't really have any additional thoughts on it. I don't really know too much about Mind Robotics. Um, but I I agree it's all positive. Um I I can't really think of any downside outside of maybe um RJ's focus being a little split depending on his involvement with the company. But the fact that that they're going to use Mind Robotics to build Rivian vehicles, like it all seems to work together. It's not like totally different um industries.

SPEAKER_01 32:49

Right, right. I suspect Mind Robotics has its own CEO, but um, I haven't looked into it to to know that for sure. But uh that would be my guess is that it probably has its own CEO. And then there would be no downside.

SPEAKER_02 33:04

Yeah, or very little anyway. Very little. Um okay, let's move on to Bumble. So they uh reported their Q4 2025 earnings. Did have you looked at it at all while we've been talking?

SPEAKER_01 33:18

No, I did get a notification that stock price was up. Oh, stock price up 22%. That's that's good. 22%.

SPEAKER_02 33:25

Um, the actual earnings themselves were mixed. So revenue was a small beat of a little over 1%. Revenue came in at 22 at 224 million. Um, and the expectation was closer to 221 million. And EPS uh was a big miss. Uh the expectation was 24 cents, and it came in at negative$4.06.

SPEAKER_01 33:49

That's that's almost certainly due to one-time uh write-out, probably some accounting. Um, it it's goodwill write down, almost certainly. Let's so you want to open the report, we can just go through it real quick. Yes. Uh they don't have four dollars to lose. So the uh uh but but yeah, they had a billion dollars of uh goodwill on their books, and I suspect that they wrote that that down pretty significantly. All right, so total paying users 3.3 million, humble app paying users 2.2 million, average revenue per customer is up eight percent, net loss. Okay, adjust adjusted evida, which is uh a pretty good indicator of um earnings before interest tax depreciation and I forget what the A stands for. Um amortization, maybe? Uh I forget, but it's 71 million. So uh definitely profitable. I suspect there's a cash flow somewhere in here. Uh scroll down. This is just the next slide. Okay. Uh annual revenue uh roughly 966 for the fiscal year 2025, down 10% year over year. Let's let's go on to the next one. Um users and RPU. Let's let's move on. I kind of want to see what what the um one-time charge is. Uh so okay, uh total revenue, bumble app revenue, I trusted EBITDA. Oh, this is the outlook. Um the outlook for Q1 2026 is 209 to 213 million, still above the 200 million mark, which is good. Um still pretty strong EBITDA of 76 to 80 million, so that that's good. Let's see. All right, you know, if you want me to zoom in on anything. I just want to see oh, the impairment loss right there,$630 million impairment loss. So if it wasn't for that, they would yeah, they would have roughly a$19 million uh net profit. Right. I will I kind of wish they would make it easy and just spell out those things. The impairment loss has zero impact on their actual um revenues and balance sheets and uh cash, none of that stuff. So in fact, they probably added uh significant amount of cash to their cash. Um what else? What what other slides do we have here? Let's go down a little bit more. That's it. That's it. Okay. I think they can probably do a much better job on their on their slide deck. Um the impairment loss should have been explained in probably like the first first or second slide. It should have been just crystal clear. Uh it frustrates me a little bit that that they get some of these basic things uh wrong, but um yeah, seems like the market didn't mind it though. Yeah, the market's uh yeah, it's causing, but also at three bucks a share, which is incredibly cheap, it's not very difficult for it to go up significantly. Um but that's true. Definitely a good positive move is way way better than a negative move at this point. Um 22% up, that's good. Uh a great report could have could easily move this stock 100%, you know. So uh that is always a possibility down the road. Um but you know, there's still a ways away from having a great potential quarter because most of the future potential is uh revolving around this um uh product uh product set that they expect to release mid-2026. And I'll be listening to the quarterly call to see if there's any additional detail there. But um uh but at least it's good that they were on track. There was no significant bad news in that uh slide deck, at least.

SPEAKER_02 38:17

So yeah. And right now is the expectation that that overhauled app is gonna be released by their next earnings or well, the the expectation was mid-2026, and they haven't updated that.

SPEAKER_01 38:31

So hopefully in this call today, they'll update it and provide a little bit more color. But uh Whitney had previously said that it would be mid-2026.

SPEAKER_02 38:41

Yeah, because to me, if that kind of feels like there are two moment in regards to like that's the make or break product for Bumble. Right, right. And what a lot of the the stock price is riding on. Um obviously very different industries and very different dynamics. Um, yeah. But the concept of just like releasing a product, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 39:03

Yeah, but I mean, like, just to be clear, the break in Bumble's case means even if that product doesn't do like that is not incredibly well received, but their existing product line just continues to do well um or as well as it's doing, it's still generating cash every quarter. It's a profitable company with$200 million plus um quarterly revenue run rate. So if you just annualize that, you're still at over$840 million of annual revenue uh and prof uh close to$100 million of profits. So, you know, the the the break part on on Bumble is not like bankruptcy. It's not it's not like this company is about to go bankrupt. It's in a pretty decent position, right? It's in a healthier position than Rivium from that standpoint. Um yeah. In I mean it's a weird comparison to make, but I would not not choose to compare it to Rivian. But yeah. Ribian does have growing revenues, though, and they have uh so like one perspective on it is that uh because Rivian's revenues are growing and bumbles are declining, you know, when whenever your revenues are declining, that's a more dangerous sort of perspective, or the market will have a more dangerous perspective on that uh versus growing revenues without profits, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 40:35

So okay, let's get to uh one question I have for you before we get to listener questions. So taking a step back, uh which themes or industries really excite you over the next five to ten years? Because your portfolio is it feels like each stock kind of focuses on something different. It's not I don't think there's really much like um an integrated thread between all of them.

SPEAKER_01 41:06

I mean, you could say the integrated thread is uh is that they're all tech, right? Rocket Lab is everything these days. Yes. Yes. So I would say tech. And uh and ideally it's tech that I use. Now, Rocket Lab in particular is not tech that I could use. So uh I don't have a first hand perspective on Rocket Lab, but being a space enthusiast, I kind of know a lot more about the uh sector than I do about like healthcare or I don't know, just some other sectors that I might even be a user, but I don't really care about the sector at all to sort of pay attention to what's going on. Um but in general, it's tech, it's areas that uh are in my wheelhouse. Um you know, you know, ideally it's products that I use today or could use if I wanted to, such as Rivian. I currently don't own a Rivian, but I can assess a Rivian pretty easily because I drive cars and I drive EVs in particular. I can compare it to a Tesla and kind of get a good sense of it. Um, but I've been also like uh building tech products, uh software products in particular all my life. So that I have a little bit more visibility and opinions and uh knowledge in that area. So that that's that's the sector focus. Sector is you.

SPEAKER_02 42:32

The sector is me. That's right. Let's get to listener questions. Let's do it.

SPEAKER_00 42:40

Can you guys hear me?

SPEAKER_02 42:41

We can Adrian, yes.

SPEAKER_00 42:43

Great. Um, okay. So let's start with. We all there's always questions about cash positions. So um is there a minimum percentage of your cash position that you'll keep no matter how much the market drops? What's the lowest percentage of cash position you've ever held, and when in time was that?

SPEAKER_01 43:05

Um, so to answer your question, there's probably not going there's not a hard minimum. I don't I don't have hard and fast rules that I never break. Um I generally don't like to use margin, uh, so I avoid that. However, I have used margin pretty significantly historically. Uh and I'll tell you when I have used margin. And when you use margin, you're basically in negative cash. So uh just to sort of like point that out. Um the time that I used margin the most was when I still had my software company. So the uh my highest asset essentially would was my software company that I owned. And then I had my portfolio, which was uh all of the liquid assets that I had access to. Uh and I had sort of maxed it up, maxed out my portfolio, and this is roughly the 2019 timeframe. Uh, and uh at the time Uh the market was speculating that Tesla was going to go bankrupt. And I just could not leave that opportunity uh uh alone. And my assessment was as a Tesla driver and uh watching that Tesla's annual revenues increase 50% every year for the previous few years, with um Model 3 doing fantastic, Model Y on the verge of coming out. Uh I just did not assess the same thing as the market. So the market had punished Tesla stock in 2019 to where it had lost roughly half of its value. Not different from, let's say, um, you know, um Robinhood losing half of its value. But one of the differences that Tesla at that point in time had not gone up 10x yet. So uh it it had lost half of its value in 2019. My assessment was that uh it's not going anywhere, and I think the market is getting it wrong. And uh I ended up making a uh uh sort of a balanced uh risk. The the balance was that my net assets because of my company was going to allow me to go into margin comfortably. Uh, and I used a pretty significant amount of margin to do that. Uh and that that bet paid off extremely well the following year just because Tesla stock shot up through the roof in 2020 uh and went up uh as much as like 15 times in in less in roughly a year and a half time frame from from the lows in of May 2019 time frame. So, you know, um I never say never, but generally speaking, I don't like to um uh I like to have some amount of cash reserves. And currently I have um uh you know I think it's something like 14% of my uh portfolio is in cash, but the vast majority of my net worth and assets is my portfolio. So it's a it's even more high risk for me to go into margin if I wanted to use margin today or go down to zero percent. Um I also have a pretty substantial tax belt coming up, uh, which will use up a significant portion of my cash. I don't know exactly how much yet, so we'll we'll see. But um, but those are, I mean, that's a very long response. So hopefully that answers your question and gives you a little bit of glimpse into how I think about it.

SPEAKER_02 46:33

Yeah, from my perspective, I also don't have a minimum of how much cash I should have. Mainly because I I do have cash outside of my portfolio, not to invest, but like to use on everyday expenses and whatnot.

SPEAKER_01 46:48

Um, so I have that too, by the way, just to just to be clear. Just my everyday expenses I don't use from my cash in my portfolio. But one big difference is that you have income uh and and I don't have income. So that that would also change things for me.

SPEAKER_02 47:03

So right. And and that cash is based on um what are my average monthly expenses, and then I multiply that by, I forget, like six months or nine months, and then that's my safety net. And so it's not based on a per on a percentage of my portfolio, it's just based on how much do I actually need uh to survive for X many months. Uh and then the other piece of like, okay, well, what about like just wanting to have uh investing power in your portfolio at all times? As long as I'm buying stocks that I think are um, you know, fairly valued or undervalued, I'm okay using my cash. I'm not gonna like wait and always hold uh every last dollar because then I'll never use it. Um also if I feel like I can sell a particular stock uh to build my cash back up, even if it the stock goes down, because I'm you know, I I Rocket Lab's a good example where I'm up pretty large on there, so it could take a decent and I still might feel like I came out ahead. Um, so I could I could always build up my cash. Um and I need to win. Um and in regards to when was my cash really low, I it was really low uh at the towards the end of uh 2025. I don't remember how low it got, but I did not have much cash in my portfolio at that point. You use margin at all? No. No, I don't touch it. Yeah. Well, I guess the real answer is I do have Marden turned on just so I could uh once I exit a trade, I could immediately invest those dollars, but I'm not investing dollars I don't have. Gotcha, gotcha.

SPEAKER_01 48:46

All right, let's go on to the next question, Andrew.

SPEAKER_00 48:48

Okay. This is for Dustin. Dustin, I saw you posted a community insight on Earnings Hub about AMPX. Can you talk more about it?

SPEAKER_02 48:58

Yeah, so that came from a question that I received in my savvy trader community, and then I thought the answer was okay enough to post uh on Earnings Hub for everyone to see. So uh Amparus is a battery company. Um, they they work on lithium-ion batteries, mainly for drones, I believe. They're like high-powered batteries, they could actually hold double the amount of power as a typical lithium-ion uh battery, but they're not they they won't work for like phones or like data sensors, which is what um EOS focuses on, um, because they're they're they're really targeting that higher energy usage device. So a drone is um a perfect example. Um I I like the company. I have, and I I say this in the post, I just have a bias against lithium ion, um, which might be fair, might not be. I just feel like the technology is ripe for disruption, and it's not where I would want to invest personally. At the same time, I think the company itself is executing well, I think the product is good. Um, so there's always a world where I I end up um investing in them, but I wouldn't want to invest in two battery companies at the same time. So I would have to get out of EOS uh to do that. But um, it's not like they're on my watches or anything. It was really just I received a question about them and and was answering it. Very cool.

SPEAKER_00 50:38

You ready?

SPEAKER_02 50:39

Let's do it.

SPEAKER_00 50:40

Um, I do want to highlight this right here. Um, someone wants a robot to look like Hamid, but have Dustin's voice.

SPEAKER_02 50:52

It's funny because I think Hamid's voice is much nicer than mine, but thank you. That's funny.

SPEAKER_00 50:58

Anyway, just had to let you know we we've got some big fans here designing robots based on you guys. Um okay, L E R2 versus waiting for LiDAR. Thoughts? I'm leaning toward L E R2.

SPEAKER_01 51:13

LE meeting launch edition. Um so uh just to just just to sort of put things in perspective, um Tesla has full self-driving capabilities today. They're not completely uh they're they're technically supervised self-driving capabilities, but it is incredibly good. I drive, I drive a Tesla uh and it does 96% of my driving, according to it. By the way, it tells you it track it tracks how much of it is on self-driving versus me driving. Vast majority of my driving is done on self-driving. Yet, despite the fact that um self-driving is available on Teslas, fewer than 20% of Tesla owners choose to have full self-driving capabilities in their Tesla. Um, they just don't pay for it for whatever reason. Now, so taking that into consideration, that means for 80% of the population of Tesla drivers specifically, many of them who are attracted to the to the vehicle probably because of self-driving capabilities still don't use it. So for a lot of people, this LIDAR issue is a non-issue. Whether or not the launch edition of the Ribbian R2 will have LIDAR is a non-issue. So um you can assume that 80% of the people are probably not going to care at all whether or not uh the R2 has LIDAR. Um and even without LIDAR, just to again put things in in perspective, the expectation is that it might be able to match the self-driving capabilities of Tesla today in the next year or so. Now, you know, they haven't said exactly when, but they've said point-to-point uh hands-off driving should come uh later this year. So, you know, if they're a little bit late, let's say in less than a year, and that capability is not dependent on LIDAR. So uh again, for a lot of people who want similar capabilities to Tesla's full-self driving today, uh they don't need to wait for LIDAR to come out. The LIDAR is what Rivian expects is necessary in order to get L4 uh level four driving capabilities, which would mean the the driver would not even be in the vehicle, meaning um you send the the car to go pick up your kid from school or whatever. So um, you know, I can't answer the question of whether or not you should wait for uh LIDAR, but uh but I suspect you might not even be able to get a R2 launch edition for the next year anyway, uh, unless you're in the early reservation counts. And then if you are in the early reservation counts, what I would say is, you know, if uh level four driving or is not super important to you, go ahead and get the launch edition. If it is super important to you, uh then wait. But you know, what are you gonna drive in the meantime? So uh you could also buy one now, trade it in later, and upgrade. So all of those things are possibilities. I don't think it's gonna impact their sales numbers, by the way.

SPEAKER_00 54:23

Okay, you ready for a new one? Okay. Staying on Rivian. What at what point can Rivian break even, counting on their in-house chips, added up sales from also and the robotics?

SPEAKER_01 54:38

So they're not gonna have any revenue from also and robotics. Those companies are independent uh and they just own a piece of them. Uh the way to think about it is that uh, you know, like uh Google has an investment in SpaceX, but SpaceX revenue doesn't trickle down to uh to Google. But if SpaceX down the road had uh was in a position where it was gonna give dividends, those dividends might go to shareholders. And neither company, meaning uh neither also nor the Mind Robotics is anywhere close to even having profits. Uh, and then most companies having profits, especially if they're in a growth stage, never have dividends. So um none of that is gonna impact uh Rivian's numbers at all. One good thing about having them as separate companies is that it also doesn't cost Rivian any money, whereas all of having all of those teams in-house building those types of products, let's say robotics products for their manufacturing lines, they'd have to have those people on payroll. Um, they have to do the RD costs for for those robots. None of that cost is going to Rivian. So that's the positive side here. It doesn't use up any of their cash because other companies are investing in them as they just got this$500 million. But um but don't expect any kind of uh profits trickling down to Rivian, uh at least for the next decade, if not longer. That however, um let's say Mind Robotics could have a really high valuation down the road, and Rivian might choose to sell a piece of that uh uh that company, their ownership in that company, and that might affect their cash. But uh some outside of something like that, it would not affect their cash position at all.

SPEAKER_02 56:31

I just want to call out that I think this was the first LinkedIn post or LinkedIn question we we've received. So yeah, I just noticed that it's like LinkedIn represent.

SPEAKER_01 56:41

Very cool.

SPEAKER_00 56:44

Um you ready for another one?

SPEAKER_01 56:46

Let's do it.

SPEAKER_00 56:47

Um let's see. Sorry, we just got another one. Um people are wanting you to talk about micron, big swings in micron price price daily, also meta court issues, meta court issues defending itself. Uh so uh lot anyway.

SPEAKER_01 57:10

Yeah, so so the big swings in micron pricing. Uh let's start there. Do you have any opinions on that? Uh, are you invested in micron? I I don't remember. No, I'm not. No, okay.

SPEAKER_02 57:20

So you probably don't have any opinions on the yeah. I mean, I see it's I when I look at your portfolio, I see it moving, but outside of that, I'm not really too focused on that. Yeah, it's like up 5%, down five percent, up 10%.

SPEAKER_01 57:32

Um so yeah, it it doesn't bother me. It's it's uh the the thing is that uh there is this sort of big speculation as to whether or not Micron can deliver on these uh extremely high expectations of roughly$18 billion of revenue and eight dollars of profits per share uh in the quarter that uh they're about to be um announcing. So, you know, until that happens, I suspect you know these kind of fluctuations are going to happen. And then if they deliver on that, my expectation would be that they would probably see a significant jump from there. Um, but if they don't deliver on that, we could, you know, depending on how short they fall, um, we could see a decrease. Uh if they come close to it, we still might see an inc increase. It's hard to sort of speculate. I'm never right, by the way, about the market in the short term. I generally get it right about companies in the long term, but but long term oftentimes means more than three years for me. So um, you know, that that's the way I would look at it. As far as meta court issues, I haven't been following the uh meta court issues closely. So I don't know what's going on there. Um I feel like great companies have court issues all the time happening to them, and it usually is inconsequential to the long-term success of the company. So Meta's been through a lot.

SPEAKER_00 58:59

So okay, so before we close, I know we're running out of time, but I just wanted to someone following up on micron again, they're just wondering what your expectations in the earnings would be.

SPEAKER_01 59:13

Okay, let's uh let's look at micron. When when is it reporting, by the way? So uh in a week. Oh, it's next week, uh, on Wednesday on Bi Hall Rent uh podcast day. So let's look at this. This is this is what is super exciting. It's worth sort of talking about briefly here. Uh, but this revenue jump uh and it has jumped to 19.1 billion now. It used to be 18. Holy mackerel. But um they report in seven days, the revenue expectations are 19 billion, EPS of$8.56. That is like an incredible increase from record revenues of$13 billion. So when you look at a$13 billion uh revenue company, and this is quarterly, so if you multiply by four, you're talking about uh what, a$52 billion revenue run rate company, all of a sudden coming in at$19 billion the very next quarter, um up roughly 50% quarter over quarter, and then all of a sudden becoming a close to$80 billion run rate company annualized when you multiply 19.1 by four. Um, it's just an incredible accomplishment. If they accomplish that, they deserve to go up pretty significantly. Um and uh and I think this is why you sort of see the fluctuations, is because sometimes people are like, wow, they they will hit this, and then other times other people are probably speculating, there's no way they're gonna hit that. So you got you gotta see these uh uh these fluctuations happen. But um, but yeah, this is an incredible uh expectation of of the company. Just kind of curious, what was their guidance? Their guidance was in the 18.3 to 19.1 million billion numbers. So um yeah, we'll we'll see what happens there. But I'm kind of excited for micron earnings next week. It should be super fascinating.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:15

Okay, I think with that, this was a great 30th episode. Uh if you spent if you spent the last hour with us, uh you spend the next second liking, commenting, subscribing to us on all our platforms. YouTube, all of them.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:34

Just do it. Watch two or three times, listen a couple more times. That's right. We I feel like we should stop asking people to do that.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:42

Like they're either gonna do it or not do it, you know. Like uh you say that until I stop doing it, and then all the numbers go down. Also, how am I gonna end the video? Am I just gonna say thanks for listening? That's no fun.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:55

Yeah, that well, yeah. It maybe come up with a better way to end the video and and then inherently maybe people will want to subscribe because they're like, wow, Dustin just great. I gotta subscribe. All right, guys, thanks very much.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:13

Bye. Bye.