SPEAKER_01 0:00

Seconds late, but um Dustin, I did it. You know what I did. I did it.

unknown 0:06

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 0:08

I won't play dumb. I I trimmed Micron, as you already know. But uh but I can't believe it. Yeah. I said I would, I might, I would not do it before a thousand dollars. And uh once it hit a thousand dollars, a lot of people were expecting me to do it sooner, but I finally did it today.

SPEAKER_03 0:26

I was surprised that you actually waited for $1,000. I really thought you were gonna trim sooner. And then I was surprised after it went to $1,000 that you didn't trim immediately.

SPEAKER_01 0:37

Yeah, yeah. I I mean, like fundamentally, I think this company is still extremely undervalued. And we'll talk about it, I guess, when when uh, but maybe we should start with the agenda before I just jump right into Micron.

SPEAKER_03 0:51

Yeah, okay. So we're gonna we're gonna talk about you sold Micron, you also sold another stock that you sell every week. So I'm sure uh the listeners can guess what that is. We're gonna talk about uh Micron's EHS score was downgraded from an A to a B. So I wanna break that down and talk about if that's good, bad, or irrelevant. Uh you had a great post on Rivian, I think it was from yesterday, uh laying out eight reasons why you're bullish on Rivian. So we're gonna break that down. Uh anthropic finally filed to go public. So we'll get our thoughts on that. And one of my favorite topics, we're gonna talk about Robinhood and Bitcoin. And has Robinhood officially decoupled from Bitcoin? Because it had a bit of a breakdown, breakout. Um so we'll talk about all that and listener questions. So, okay, let's go back to the the micron conversation. Um why did you it felt like you hesitated to sell?

SPEAKER_01 1:55

Like what so I guess I didn't have this sort of like arbitrary price target. Uh the thousand dollars was very arbitrary, right? Like it wasn't like I am gonna sell at a thousand. I was just thinking that under a thousand before it has its quarterly report, and I think I made this decision. I I don't remember what the stock price was, but probably in the five, six hundreds when I when I said that I wouldn't sell any under a thousand. Maybe it was a little higher, I don't remember. But but fundamentally, it's it's just been extremely undervalued this entire time since I've been starting to buy it in December. I still think it's undervalued, right? But uh, but now uh it has gone up more than 200% for me. So it's roughly a 3x uh, you know. So in less than six months, uh December 29th was my first purchase. So what are we like uh June 2nd? Yeah. Um in less than six months, it's gone up over 215%. It's not normal for this kind of return, but this was not a normal stock. It was extremely undervalued, again, in my in my view. Um and as it has become such a large portion of my portfolio, it broke 34% this morning. Uh, I was like, okay, maybe it's time for me to de-risk a little bit. Now, here's the cool thing. When you know, I sold only two and a half percent of my holding of Micron, but because it's more than three times what I paid for it, it's kind of like taking off, taking out seven and a half percent or almost eight percent of what I put into it. Right. So um it's it's kind of nice. I mean, I I don't know. I like um I suspect I'm gonna have regrets. I think it already sort of uh is higher than what I sold it for. So um that that that's probably going to continue, but um, but I think it's appropriate to de-risk as um as I typically do with these things. So you know, now that I look back with the de-risking that I did with Rocket Lab, I'm super glad I did it, especially since the price has come down quite a bit, right?

SPEAKER_03 4:03

Um well it's it's funny because in your last sale of Rocket Lab, you mentioned uh this is probably gonna be the last one I do for a while, not knowing that it was going to reverse, right? Like it could have kept going up. Um you you just nailed that on the head.

SPEAKER_01 4:21

Yeah, it's it's uh it's just pure luck. I mean, like you can't time these things, is uh is my viewpoint on it. And I've learned as the momentum is in the upward direction, if you are going to trim, trim slowly. And as the momentum is in the negative direction, if you're going to be buying a buyer, buy slowly because there might be lots of uh buying opportunities. So um I've been trying to internalize that more. Uh when I started buying Micron, it was on an upward trend. So I actually didn't buy slowly, I bought very fast and you know, bought some, did some more research on it, just like really loved it, doubled down literally the like a day later, maybe two days later, and then uh kept buying all the way throughout the uh uh throughout March and I think April may have been my last purchase. But um, but yeah, it's uh it's been an incredible ride with Micron in such a short period of time, which usually doesn't happen. I feel like these types of things kind of ruin investors into thinking that this is normal and you're constantly seeking that next high of finding a stock that's going to double or triple over the course of six months. It's just, you know, that's not the way investments generally work. So totally it's a it's a double-edged sword.

SPEAKER_03 5:38

So I know you said you don't really have a price target for when to sell Micron, but do you have a portfolio allocation target? Because I know it's really getting up there in regards to your portfolio, it's just moving faster than everything else. Um I think even after the sell, it's still above 30% uh of your portfolio.

SPEAKER_01 6:00

Yeah, it's it's still something like 33% of my portfolio. Um I think, you know, obviously it gets uncomfortable when something is such a high percentage of my portfolio. Conviction helps, meaning, like the higher conviction that I have, um, the more comfortable I am with holding such a large portion. And in Micron's case, I do have really high conviction. It's this is still a company company that its forward PE is in the 11 range. So uh it's a very low forward PE. There's a good chance that uh even that might get uh rated uh their earnings might actually come out way above expectations and they might actually increase their expectations for the next year of earnings. So there's a good chance that his forward PE might actually go down as it reports earnings uh in late June. So um I I'm comfortable uh being uh having such a large portion of it in Micron in particular. I probably wouldn't be if it was, as you know, like Rocket Lab. If I had held on to Rocket Lab, for example, it would have been an even larger proportion than 34% of my portfolio when it hit its high of 150. But I was trimming the whole way up. So it ended up not going significantly above 20, 25 percent. Um, it it all depends on how uh I believe that the company or stock is overpriced or undervalued, right?

SPEAKER_03 7:29

Uh Adrian, I think we have a question from a listener.

SPEAKER_00 7:33

Yeah. Um this person follow up. Can you hear me?

SPEAKER_01 7:39

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, absolutely.

SPEAKER_00 7:42

Um can Micron be 2K at the end of the year?

SPEAKER_01 7:47

Anything can be any amount at any given time. I can't I can't answer that question. I do not I do not have a crystal ball to be able to know what the price uh would be. Uh could it be the answer to that is always yes for almost anything. So um anything is possible. But uh I don't count on these things. Uh the way I view it is that if something is undervalued, I I like it. If it's overvalued, I don't like it. But um but if it's overvalued and a great company, I might like it enough to hold on to it, knowing that you know, in the long term, even overvalued companies can can uh justify their uh current valuation in the long term. But um uh in the short term, everything is unpredictable in my view. There's no reason you know why Micron should have been back in the 300s after it recorded its quarter uh in March, right? Like uh where it blew away all expectations and then raised its expectations significantly for the next quarter. But sure enough, it went from $440 a share down to $320 a share in the days following its quarterly report. So um I could have never predicted that, but it did. So uh, you know, I I am not in the as an investor, I don't look at myself as a predictor of price. I look at myself as a good um judgment of whether or not a company is uh undervalued or overvalued. And I I like to buy companies that are undervalued.

SPEAKER_03 9:23

So keeping uh on with Micron, their earnings hub score was downgraded from uh uh A to a B. So just to give a little overview of what the earnings hub score is, um it is a combination of PE, PS, revenue growth, and EPS growth relative to the 500 most popular stocks on Earnings Hub, which actually let me bring up uh Micron on Earnings Hub so we could see these uh charts. So you could see relative to um the other 500 stocks, it's like uh PE ratio is a D, its PS ratio is a D, its revenue growth is an A, CPS growth is an A for a total of uh ranking as a B.

SPEAKER_01 10:20

So so just a tad bit more uh background on the earnings hub score. This is something that I basically created as a shorthand for the way in which I invest. And the way in which I invest, I put a lot of emphasis on uh revenues, profits, revenue growth, profits growth, uh, PE ratio. Um, and when I created this, uh we didn't have as easy access to forward PE ratio, so we didn't take forward PE ratio into consideration. So um the creation of uh the earnings hub score takes those sort of like four basic metrics into consideration and does not take into consideration forward PE. Now the reason micron just dropped from a A to a B is because its price earnings ratio, um its current price ratio earnings ratio, which actually does the trailing 12 months, has now increased to a 48. And as a P having a PE of 48, that actually puts it into a sort of like a lower quartile category. So if you break up the 500 most popular companies on uh Earnings Hub into A, B, C, D by Quartile, then uh the micron is now falling into the lower quartile. Um but if you were to do this exact same thing for forward PE, I suspect it would be an A score, meaning it would still be in the first quartile, the top quartile. And that's the reason it's uh score yeah, forward PE would be 11.

SPEAKER_03 11:57

And I do want to just pull this up. So I I this is a uh freeze frame from the uh December 29th, or roughly that time when you first bought uh Micron. So this was the the metrics back then uh where the PE was 30, the PS was nine. We didn't show forward PE at the time, but I think it was around four. Uh revenue growth was 45%, EPS growth was 181%. So revenue and EPS growth is actually lower here than it is now. Um but PE ratio and PS ratio are higher.

SPEAKER_01 12:37

Yeah, so you you know the the earnings hub score is sort of like a shorthand for for um like being able to quickly determine a handful of metrics, but it doesn't like you know, obviously it can get it wrong and it's uh not taking everything into consideration that uh that it should take into consideration. And now I put um uh now that we have access to forward PE, I think we should put more emphasis on that as well. So we might have to update the um earnings hub score in order to take forward PE into consideration.

SPEAKER_03 13:11

But yeah, and I think another way to look at it too is for the stocks that are getting an A, especially with the lower PE and PS ratios, it's more so saying that it's undervalued, where a B would maybe mean it's closer to an um a more accurate valuation.

SPEAKER_01 13:31

Um so on the grand scheme of things, maybe uh that that would be the case. But uh like and this is part of the warning that I put in the page that describes what the earnings hub score is, is that this is just a shorthand to help me sort of like determine, and I thought it might be useful to other people as well, to help me sort of quickly determine uh whether or not I want to dig deeper into a company. Um, but but it does not necessarily get it right all the time. And I currently own things that have poor scores. Uh in fact, I think uh like Rivian and Bumble might have really poor scores. Or at least uh and rock well, Rocket Lab may have a poor score now, but it probably had a decent score. Oh, it's a C now.

SPEAKER_03 14:18

It was a D in the past, and now it's a C.

SPEAKER_01 14:20

Yeah. So I I'm often buying things that have a score of a C or D. Uh D is the sort of like the worst score you can get. So, you know, I wouldn't use Earnings Hub score as a tell all or a be all tell all type of thing, but it is a useful tool. Um, and that's the way I would look at it. So I just want to put that caveat in there is that uh this is not, you know, obviously as the price of a stock goes up, uh then the valuation is uh is get becoming more appropriate. So in Micron's case, it's obviously triple what it was just uh just six months, less than six months ago, and therefore its valuation is more appropriate or closer to what it should be, in my view, than it was a few months ago, but which means it's not as undervalued as it was. So, you know, you you could view that as sort of maybe justification for a lower score, but it's still a I think it's still a better stock than many stocks that have an A score on the earnings hub score, if that makes sense.

SPEAKER_03 15:28

Totally. Uh by the way, Bumble is a B and Rivian is a C. So none of them are.

SPEAKER_01 15:34

So those have also changed.

SPEAKER_03 15:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 15:38

It's a fluid metric. Yeah. Um by the way, we recalculate the earnings hub score every single day for every single stock. So just a heads up on that.

SPEAKER_03 15:48

Yeah. So you uh had a great post on X. Let me show it here. Breaking down eight reasons why you are bullish on Rivian. And I thought this would be good uh to break down and test your memory of bullish on Rubian.

SPEAKER_01 16:13

Um I probably won't say them in the right order, uh, but if you scroll up, I'll I'll try to sort of like touch on each one of them. Keep it on, keep it on the screen so that I can uh but okay. So uh I love companies that have products that their customers love, right? Like their customers have cult-like following. This would be ideal, right? Right. So Apple, for example, would be one of those companies where its customers have cult-like following, you know, um, all the way from the 80s, 90s, 2000s, whether it was the original Mac, the uh or even the Apple II, all the way to the iMac and then the iPod, then iPhone, the their customers just absolutely love Apple. They would never go with something else, cult-like following. Uh similarly, Tesla had uh has had, especially up until a few years ago, cult-like following by its customers, where they they just never thought they would buy another uh car besides a Tesla. Um so these types of companies is especially consumer type of companies, um, I think are fantastic potential investments. Uh Amazon is starting to have cult-like uh following and customer, not starting to, but has had it. So that if, for example, something is sold on Amazon, as a customer of Amazon, I'm way more likely to buy it from Amazon than from anywhere else, because I know that I can get it shipped fast. I can, like, there's all these things that come with being a customer of theirs. Um, similarly, Rivian has a cult-like following with its existing customer base. In fact, um it's it has the number one uh highest customer satisfaction rate, despite uh being a uh car that uh people complain about the most in terms of having to get go to service. So it has a decent like relatively bad service record uh in that you have to take it in a lot. But its customers, despite that, still would rather buy a Ribbian than anything else. Um, so I love that about it. Uh and I think that's like a great like check mark of okay, this is a company where its customers love its products. Uh, and then it's coming out with this mass market vehicle with the R2 that has had rave reviews in in the handful of people who have had a chance to review it. Uh, it looks like it's going to be a major hit and deliveries start in literally six days from now. Um, so next Tuesday is when deliveries start. So that's huge. Um, then that that vehicle is going to start triggering a massive increase in revenue uh for Rivian, likely 50% annualized revenue increases for at least the next two or three years, probably much longer. Um so I love that. You know, who doesn't love a company that's growing revenues at 50% or greater? Um and then uh let's see, the the amount of technology that this company has, that Rivian has, uh, between its uh uh battery technology and electronics technology and software, which we know is electronics and software alone, are advanced enough to where the world's number one automaker, VW, set up a joint venture to get access to their software and electronics for um for building their own EVs. Um so all of this technology that they have, in addition to AI chips, which they just uh they just introduced, uh, and uh autonomy capabilities that they're building into their vehicles, uh, and the fact that they have the surround cameras that's collecting the second most amount of information after Tesla for um for the way, you know, to be able to train these autonomous systems, that puts them at a massive technological advantage over any other vehicle except for Carmaker, except for Tesla. So I love that about it. And then um you know, uh there are so there's this sort of Chinese company risk, which I think is a legitimate risk, and that like Chinese companies might be catching up or uh in some cases even surpassing um European and American uh EV makers because of the amount of investment China has made into their companies. So that is a risk, but I think that US and Europe will have to protect their car industries, otherwise it's a serious threat. So I think they will continue to have uh to make it difficult for Chinese companies to compete on just price alone, which is the sort of like traditional way that Chinese companies have have uh competed. So uh I think that's not going to be a major risk going forward. Um, and then you know, when you put it all together, uh a company that is just worth around $25 billion, as opposed to you know, Tesla being the number one at $1.6 trillion, it just makes it an incredibly attractive investment. So these are roughly the the things that um I I love about it. And then they have so much infrastructure with charging network, over 140 charging destinations, they have 100 uh service centers, 40 or 50 sales centers, uh, and they own all of them, unlike the traditional car company. So again, very well positioned. And this these are not things that you could easily uh solve, even if you had access to an unlimited amount of money. You still need a decade or or longer to set up operations for all of these things. So um, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 21:49

So my my two thoughts on this, because I I uh agree with um everything you said and the overall sentiment. I was surprised you didn't mention uh LIDAR. At all. Because I do think this is a potential blind spot, pun intended, for Tesla. Assuming that this is going to be a blocking factor to get um to uh deeper levels of autonomous driving. Um so they they can actually be ahead uh in that regard.

SPEAKER_01 22:22

LIDAR might well let me just uh comment on LIDAR before you go on to the next point, because LIDAR might be a technological advan advantage in the future, but we don't know whether or not it's a technological advantage yet. Because in in Waymo's case, it might be, you might be able to argue. But in Rivian's case, A, they don't have LIDAR in their vehicles yet. Uh and then B, uh they also don't have full self-driving capabilities to the same level of Tesla yet. So again, that the LIDAR potential advantage hasn't been proven. And therefore, that's not like a major reason why I would be a uh uh very bullish on this uh on the company because of LiDAR. I'm bullish because of all the tech that they have and the fact that they're building their own AI chip and uh you know all this other software and um electronics and components that they have built.

SPEAKER_03 23:16

But yeah, what is a world? What I think is bullish is not so much the LIDAR itself, but that we know that vision alone is has its limitations and that at least Rivian is trying to solve for that. Um and like, yes, there there is a world where you why why are you laughing?

SPEAKER_01 23:40

Well, I mean, when you say we know that vision has its limitations, I'm very careful about what I say about like vision only, uh FS full self-driving.

SPEAKER_03 23:50

I think that like uh I'm I'm not saying you can't have full self-driving with just vision. You definitely can, like humans do it. I'm just saying there are physical limitations of having strictly vision, which you know, you like it's visually hard to see certain things in certain conditions, which is just a fact.

SPEAKER_01 24:10

Right, right, right. But um yes, uh okay, but I I agree with that fundamentally, but you know, uh it's unclear. Uh okay, maybe maybe it's slightly clear because because of Waymo being currently superior to robo taxis. But um but also you know, FSD in Teslas is pretty incredible because as somebody who uses it on a daily basis, I wouldn't completely discount vision only. I do think that LIDAR will probably give, if for example, Tesla also used LIDAR, I think they would be way ahead. And I think this is something that is potentially holding back Tesla to some degree because of Elon's stance on the internet. Yeah, that's what we're really getting at. It's the mindset.

SPEAKER_03 25:00

So I think we're not good at technology. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Um and then the other point I wanted to hit on is on the Chinese front, I think my biggest concern is obviously China is innovating at an incredible rate. If they innovate fast enough where their cars are just completely superior to American EVs, that's I think going to put a lot of pressure to sell those cars in America because now it's not just a price uh difference, it's actually a quality of the product is better. And that's another big if that's not you know definitely gonna happen by any means.

SPEAKER_01 25:41

Right. But but I think this is where tariffs will come into play, right? Like um, it's not that they won't let them sell into US markets, it's that they will most likely tax them so so that they would they have a disadvantage based on their sort of like costs. And and some of that is sort of justified because uh even in a sort of totally capitalistic uh viewpoint of it, is because China is subsidizing a lot of these EV makers uh by giving them all kinds of incentives to build EVs and and therefore uh it gives them an unfair advantage, if you will. Uh not to mention labor is so much cheaper in China, and therefore, you know, just shifting that um labor cost from the US to China would would be a major problem. So if as lawmakers or as the president or whatever, they they would want to allow for um the car industry to get demolished essentially by uh you know not imposing any kind of tariffs on on vehicles imported from China, then I think that would not go over well. And that's why I'm not as worried about the sort of China threat as uh as I am about like as I would be if, for example, BMW had incredible EVs or something like that and and was building their own charging network and uh building software that was really impressive. None of that is is has been the case in every BMW I've seen, for example, or Mercedes or uh Audi.

SPEAKER_03 27:14

Right. Um okay, let's move on. Anthropic finally file to go public, which was rumored for the last couple of months, I think. Um, this is the second really large IPO um in recent, very recent history, obviously after SpaceX. Uh I know we both are uh passing on the SpaceX IPO. What are your thoughts on the anthropic IPO? Is this something that you are more interested in?

SPEAKER_01 27:48

I would definitely be way more interested in the anthropic uh IPO because the financials tend to support a valuation that um at least the valuation that they just recently raised at uh was very low, in my opinion, relative to how fast they're growing and their current revenue run rate. Uh, I believe that was about $960 billion valuation, but they are at a revenue run rate of approximately $50 billion. And these are not sort of like fully, you know, SEC filings type of documents. So it's just rumored numbers that we're going off of. Uh but I suspect their IPO will probably give them a much higher valuation than $960 billion, it'll probably be somewhere north of $1.5 trillion, because that's just that just tends to be how these things go. Um and by the time that they go and have an IPO, if they are at, let's say, $75 billion, $60, $75 billion of uh annual run rate of revenue, that would actually be way more justifiable, in my opinion, than SpaceX's valuation. Um, I probably would be interested. I'm not uh it's unlikely that I would file to try to get some IPO shares because uh I suspect it's gonna there's gonna be a frenzy. But you know, actually stepping back for a moment at all of these major IPOs, SpaceX raising $75 billion, and then potentially some of its employees trying to unload their shares after some lockup period, Anthropic raising probably somewhere north of you know $50 to $100 billion. Um then uh most likely followed by OpenAI raising a similar sort of uh money. Google just raised $80 billion on the open market, which is unprecedented, also. Um so and I think they actually increased it to $85 billion because they were oversubscribed. So, like I'm not sure where all this capital is going to come from. Uh there is a little bit of me that is starting to worry about the macro level of the stock market, that uh there might be a little bit too much liquidity that uh I'm not sure how or where this money is coming from. Um so you know, there's like some spidey senses that are like, huh, that's kind of interesting. But um, but anthropic in particular seems to be way more justifiable than uh than SpaceX.

SPEAKER_03 30:24

Yeah, the way I'm thinking about anthropic and these uh AI models in general is uh the two D's, distribution and data. And so what I mean by that is and I and I love Anthropic's product. I use it every day um for work, as you know, and it's absolutely fantastic. Where I think there's a problem potentially in the long run, is one distribution. So like where where um are these models going to show up by default? So like for Apple in theory, they would have Siri on their computers and on um their phones with an actual AI built into it. Uh Google has Android and Chrome. Uh Anthropic doesn't have anything like that. You have to go out and either install it or select it as an option. You know, if um Apple, for example, gave you, you know, which they do with ChatGPT kind of, um, and they will nominate, they allow you to you know pick it. But it's not a default anywhere. The and then the data side of things, um Anthropic has a ton of data, but if I compare it to again, like a Google that has like YouTube alone is one of the greatest uh I think data sources that there is.

SPEAKER_01 31:54

If you want to like learn any how-to YouTube, I mean the Bible rant is uh on YouTube, so yeah, that just basically solidifies it.

SPEAKER_03 32:04

So to me, the of these AI models long term, I think Gemini in particular is king, where it's it has the best data pool, it has the best distribution. Um and and I think in terms of coding, which is what anthropic does best, Gemini is fantastic. I do think Gemini is better, or sorry, uh uh Claude is better, but uh Gemini to me is second best from my own personal use.

SPEAKER_02 32:36

Right.

SPEAKER_03 32:36

So what I think about is you know, I'm a long-term investor. In 10 years, am I confident that Anthropic or Claude is going to be the killer AI model? Absolutely not. I'm not saying they won't be. I'm just saying I'm not gonna be confident that they're going to be the killer AI model, especially being that they really just blew up within the last year. Um whereas if I'm thinking about Gemini, I'm way more confident that they are going to be around and very strong in 10 years' time. So to me, I'm I can't, while I again I love Claude, I love Anthropic, I can't invest in them because I just don't know where they're going in 10 years, where I'd be more interested in investing in a company like Google, which they are in my portfolio. Um if I'm thinking about what AI AI models are going to be the strongest 10 years' time.

SPEAKER_01 33:39

Yeah, that's a great question. And this sort of reminds me of the uh 90s uh search race. And you you know, the early winners, which were like excite and yahoo and altavista.com. Well, Ask Jeeves was maybe like not an early winner, but it was like one of the great branding. But but uh like Alta Vista was probably like uh the king, and then you know, maybe um uh Yahoo on the on the sort of like directory side was king, and uh excite was a close you know, second or third. But the these guys sort of all have disappeared since uh from the search scene. And uh Google came out way late. Actually, I think Google's launch was in 2000 for search or maybe 99. Um so so the uh the the landscape might shift a few times even in the AI space before we get through this. I mean, the fact that you know open AI is now second to Anthropic, and Anthropic came out of nowhere, it seems like just in the past year, it's kind of crazy. You know, everybody was sort of like betting whether or not it would be open AI or Gemini, right? And and it turns out that it's neither one of them, um you know, as to who takes the lead uh this year. And right now, the lead seems to be with anthropic. So um you, you know, uh the the shift is probably going to happen at least once or twice more before this thing sort of like settles into massive advantages that are like hard to overcome. And you might be right that maybe Google is the one that has that massive advantage because of their access to data. But uh, but also like I wouldn't count out Meta, for example. And you know, Mark Zuckerberg, for example, in a uh recent call, uh talked about something controversial that they they're doing, which is to train their AI systems off of everyone's all of their employees' computers as well. So as the the software engineers are coding, um you know, he was arguing that we have some of the best coders in the world, and it makes sense for us to train our systems off of the best coders in the world as opposed to trying to find code on the public domain or like contractors that are coding or whatever. So some people view that as like a huge invasion of their employees' privacy. Others are like, well, yeah, of course, you know, we have the best uh employee, you know, like brains in the world. We've like literally curated this hiring process that makes sure that the best people in the world are working for us. Why wouldn't we use them for the training material for the AI? Um, it's you know, it sounds draconian, but it also makes sense, right? So Meta could come out of nowhere and all of a sudden have the best coding system. You like don't discount these things. Um, we we have no idea how it shapes up. And maybe Google does the same thing just to respond. And they have even more you know coders that like have PhDs and uh are pretty incredible. So um this is gonna be an interesting race for sure. Um, and the stakes are pretty high. So we'll we'll see what happens. But I'm kind of excited to watch this.

SPEAKER_03 36:58

I think Meta is a great point because again, if you're looking at it through the lens of distribution and data, I would say their distribution is in the middle, in between um Google and Anthropic, Google being a great example, Anthropic not really having much, uh, where they can integrate their AI and they already do this in Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, where people already are. Um and then same thing with the data I would put in the middle as well, where they have a ton of data from Facebook, a ton from Instagram, a ton from WhatsApp, in addition to the the internal uh you know teams as well. Uh so yeah, you're totally right. Where they in the AI race right now, they're probably ranking farther behind than where they will end up. Uh just their position to do well.

SPEAKER_01 37:48

Yeah, yeah, exactly. Exactly. Uh yeah, I'm I'm kind of surprised they're not doing better already, but but uh yeah, it this this will be an interesting year for Meta, I think. Um, and all of the investment that they've been making, I think makes them a very undervalued company. So this is, you know, I don't know if if we were gonna plan or if we were planning on talking about Meta at all in this session, but um or in this episode. But I I view Meta as one of these companies that just continue the stock price just has continued to get hammered, uh, while the numbers and financials and position just continues to get stronger. So I'm I'm very excited about Meta. Totally.

SPEAKER_03 38:36

Um okay, let's move on to Robinhood and Bitcoin, and then we'll get to listener questions. So uh I had uh a question in my savvy trader community from uh Chris who noticed that Robinhood has been moving up faster than Bitcoin and was like, has it finally decoupled? Decoupled. Uh and that so I I answered his his question and then I spun off um that question to be a post on on X, kind of breaking down uh my thoughts here. So uh I guess we'll start with why is Robinhood uh why has Robinhood gone up recently? I think it's mainly uh three reasons. So the first is they announced uh agenc trading uh like a week ago, okay, which I think as a product is great and inevitable, like and so in line for everything that Robinhood does. Um where basically you could connect your AI, so you could choose whatever you want, Claude, Gemini, um, Chat GPT, and set up rules and it could trade for you, it could rebalance your portfolio, it could be a stock screener. Um so I think it's a fantastic idea, fantastic feature. I believe it's currently in beta, uh, but it's it's unproven. Uh, we don't know if this is going to be a better way to invest or to trade, um, or if it's just like a nice idea, but it doesn't actually work out in practice. Right.

SPEAKER_01 40:22

Um, so I don't I think I'd be afraid. I'm like very like maybe I'm a little too traditional, but I'd be afraid that like um, you know, uh what do they call it, the robo traders uh that like caused the Black Monday uh stock market crash of the 1980s. Like there's stuff that's in my like uh core memory that like makes me afraid of certain things, you know. Um, but anyway, continue.

SPEAKER_03 40:49

Well, so the way it works is you actually have to set up a separate account for the agent. So it's not actually connected to your main Robin Hood account. So I do think that's helpful where it's like, okay, I want to test this out, but I'm only gonna give it whatever, a thousand dollars uh or a hundred dollars or whatever, right? Um, so I do think that's smart and the right I the right way of going about it of having safeguards, but people are definitely gonna be losing money testing out different strategies, right? It's just uh it's gonna happen. So I I think it's a positive um move from Robin Hood's part. I don't think it's anything groundbreaking, at least yet, right? Like if in a couple months we realize this is the best way to invest, which I think is unlikely, but it could happen, uh, then this would be absolutely incredible. But I just don't see that happening. Uh the next piece of positive momentum is the I can't use the word, the uh due to YouTube. The T accounts, the T accounts, the the new accounts for um uh children, where the government is giving them, at least kids born this year, uh $1,000 invested in the S ⁇ P 500. Uh the app that Robinhood helped develop went live uh a couple days ago. And we we talked about this a bit on the podcast already. Um the the deal is Robinhood is being paid by the government cost plus. Um, so it's not a big like game changer for them in that regard. The more exciting piece would be how much branding is Robinhood gonna have on this app and is it going to drive people into the main Robinhood app? So I installed the app. Um, it's very limited right now because the accounts aren't like ready to go. They're gonna launch uh July 4th. So the old the only thing right now that's connected to Robinhood on this app is they have uh three little logos on the bottom of the login page that basically just look like sponsors, but they're not sponsors. It's the um the National Design Studio, which is a government agency that actually designed the app, Robinhood, which built the app, and then BNY Mellon, which is uh basically the the uh the custodian uh holding the actual funds. So I don't think this is that big of a deal. If anything, this is like I I don't want to say it like this, but it's almost like worst case scenario for Robinhood, in the sense of like it's re I don't see this driving people to use the additional Robin Hood uh services. Because that you really want this to be a funnel if you're a Robin Hood investor. Um so I did I didn't think this was that big of a deal either. Right. Uh and then the the last piece, which we also talked about on the pod from a couple weeks ago, is the change in The pattern uh day trader rule. I think that change has gone into effect or is about to go into effect. Um and this is going to help drive more business because it's going to allow uh accounts or smaller accounts, accounts with under uh $25,000 to uh make more trades without being blocked by this regulation. Uh so Robinhood's business will grow from it. I just and we said it on the pod, I don't think it's going to be that big of a move for Robinhood, at least in regards to like the move the stock price has made. It's it's a another positive, but it's it's nothing truly game changing. Right. So there is a world where you have success by a thousand cuts. Like if there's enough positive momentum, even if it's all small, like it can make a difference. Right. Um, I'm not completely sold. Uh the the way I I think about these things is it's like Bitcoin is this one giant orange sun, $1.5 trillion orange sun, roughly. Uh and Robinhood is a little planet, and and other uh stocks and assets that are correlated with Bitcoin are little planets kind of orbiting around it. Uh Robinhood having a roughly like I think $75 billion market cap right now. And you basically need this planet, Robinhood, to move far enough away from Bitcoin where it's it the gravitational pull has just no effect. And I don't think any of this news is moving moving it away. And if anything, it might move a little bit closer because in a couple of weeks, Robinhood's next event is a crypto-related event. Um so that's not going to help anything. Right. Um so I to me, this feels like the same move that happened a couple weeks ago when the pattern day trader rule changed and Robinhood uh was valued at point one Robinhood share was valued at 0.0009 Bitcoin, and then it shot up to being valued at 0.0012 Bitcoin. This is the same thing. It actually shot up more to being valued at 0.0013 Bitcoin currently.

SPEAKER_01 46:25

By the way, you might you might want to not say the B word either, because I think that gets us flagged as no, I I think we're I think we're fine.

SPEAKER_03 46:32

I've I've said I've said the B word a ton of times, and that I think that's fine.

SPEAKER_01 46:36

Um but but we we've had issues with the whole crypto thing. Um I think it happened. You're right. I mean, like I think that that uh there is this uh uh correlation that continues to exist um uh as uh you know BTC has come down, um, so has Robin Hood in recent days. So, you know, every time I I keep thinking Robin Hood is gonna break out and it's gonna just definitively get me to win this bet that you and I have, and all of a sudden it just comes crashing back down. Um but you know, all of the things that you said are uh accurate and true. And I think that in the short term, um Robin Hood is going to be affected by all these all these things. But again, in the long term, if we were to sort of like fast forward five years from now, you know, what is what does that Robin Hood look like? And I think that Robinhood just looks like a behemoth of a finance uh company where it has massive amounts of assets for banking, it has massive amounts of assets under management in the brokerage, uh possibly in excess of a trillion dollars. It's sort of like on track to this uh trillion dollar mark of assets. Currently, I think it's in the 300 billion range, but uh five years from now wouldn't be surprised if it's over a trillion. And um it continues to do a great job with this different products, with this credit card, with the new platinum card that is coming out, uh, which hasn't even come out yet, as far as I know. So you know, you know, there's a lot of opportunity for them. It always takes time longer than you want for these things to execute. And um, you know, I would I'm not I'm not uh um I don't think they're extremely undervalued the way I I uh was thinking that they were when I was purchasing them uh at $90 a share. And I ended up selling some of those shares that I bought at $90 because their growth curve has slowed down further than I thought that it would have. Um but I also wouldn't be surprised if the growth curve picks up again. And some of that growth curve slowed down was because of crypto. So as they decouple from crypto, I think that will be helpful, and then you know we'll see where it goes. But I'm still bullish on the company long term, just because um, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 49:04

I and I still I still own plenty of Robin Hood shares, even though I think because there's very much a world where I am wrong and I'm just being stubborn, right? Like, but I truly believe it is still correlated and Bitcoin is going to continue to go down, which we've seen over the last couple of days. Um, and I think as Bitcoin continues to drop, that's only going to add uh more pressure to drag Robin Hood with it, uh, unfortunately. Right. But but you're absolutely right. In the long term, it's going to be totally irrelevant. This correlation, it's not gonna even exist.

SPEAKER_01 49:39

Um a snake oil sales salesman uh I I heard has started to sell some Bitcoin as well. Um, Michael the sailor.

SPEAKER_03 49:52

Yeah, yeah, which caused uh Bitcoin to drop a bit. But but the and this uh like I don't know if you remember, we used to get questions all the time of like, what did I think of MicroStrategy? Uh is that a good investment? Nobody talks about that anymore. Right. And this is this is what I was saying before, where like you have to wait for these companies to go through a bear market to see what they're gonna do, how they're gonna react, and if you still think it's a good investment, because to me it's just better to own the asset directly as opposed to like be dealing with a middleman, um, regardless of like if Michael Saylor's great or not great, like it's just adding more to me, unnecessary complexity.

SPEAKER_01 50:34

Agreed. Agreed. Okay, I was just looking at their stock. Wow. Uh it's down 66% in the past year. Um, yeah, yeah, that's fascinating. Um, you remember when everybody was talking about copper for two weeks?

SPEAKER_02 50:48

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 50:51

The investing world is sort of like a very interesting world, you know, but it it's uh a lot of people jumping on the bandwagon as opposed to actually doing research. And I'm okay. So like the general public not doing their research and jumping on bandwagon, that sort of makes sense because you know, like they don't know any better. What shocks me is how many people on who consider themselves investors or uh are um on X talking about investments and have huge following with uh as investors are also bandwagon people. Uh all of those people were talking about copper, like literally four or five months ago. And like all of the copper discussions, I haven't heard a peep about copper for the past three months, four months. Uh, and we were supposed to have this massive copper shortage for the next 10 years that was going to cause copper prices to skyrocket. Remember that? I remember. Apparently, apparently it's all gone.

SPEAKER_03 51:57

Um okay, I did not realize how long we've been running. We're already at 52 minutes. So let's start with listener questions. Too much ranting. Uh let's start listener questions, and I'm sure we'll go a little over to get uh some more in.

SPEAKER_00 52:12

Hi guys. All right. Hello, um, all right, let's just dive in. This listener wants to know if it's time to buy more bumble.

SPEAKER_01 52:22

I was looking at that today, and I was very much I was very much tempted uh to add. I haven't pulled the trigger on it um personally, uh, but uh I am on the verge of pulling the trigger. Here's one thing that I have also learned because of the downward momentum, like there's it's possible we have plenty of time. Now, maybe not at the current price, but uh um you know I wouldn't be surprised if it's remains suppressed for the next six months um or or even longer. It in order for it to fully turn around in a concrete sort of way, it needs to show increasing revenue growth uh and increasing profits. And um, and those two things might take time before they happen. And therefore, it's kind of hard to predict when the stock will recover and you know start going up at a substantial rate. Now, because of how inexpensive this stock is, all bets are off because it could happen, like one big well could potentially come in and buy you know a hundred million dollars worth of bumble, and all of a sudden, you know, that would if at current prices that would be 25% of the company. So obviously they just couldn't buy it that much of it without the stock price shooting up. So um it's it's hard to say, but it definitely looks extremely attractive to me. But that's good. What what are you thinking about?

SPEAKER_03 53:57

I agree. I was also debating on buying some. Um, I look, I don't know. I don't expect any big reversal from Bumble anytime soon, just because there's not going to be a catalyst until uh they launch the new uh the redesigned app. And that's gonna they're gonna roll that out kind of uh slowly. It's gonna hit specific markets first. Um and towards the end of the year from what you hit set. Yeah, exactly. Um, but I do think the prices are very attractive right now. Um personally, I just kind of want to build up more cash maybe before I buy more bumble, but we'll we'll see. Yeah. What else do we have, Andrew?

SPEAKER_00 54:43

Okay, we had a couple people ask about this last week and today. Um hi, I regularly listen to your podcast, Hamid and Dustin. You're both he wants he or she wants their your view on Marvel technology.

SPEAKER_01 55:00

I'll I'll leave it to Jensen to is it that's the company that Jensen just said is gonna be the next trillion dollar company, right? Um I I love Jensen. I think he's brilliant and an amazing CEO and founder, and has done a phenomenal job with uh with Nvidia. Uh, but I don't know if uh he's been historically a great stock picker. So um I'm skeptical on the trillion dollar valuation for Marvell technology. I mean, but but you know, he's obviously a partner of theirs, so you know he might he might he has way better insight than I do. Um but I'm not I'm I have not bought Marvell tech tech.

SPEAKER_03 55:44

Have you, Dustin? No, and I I haven't even really looked into them, but what I will say is like Jensen is obviously he's built an incredible company, he's an incredible entrepreneur. Um I would just be weary of and he has great perspective, but I'd be I would be weary of following not that it's even stock advice, but like tips of what companies are going to do well or not going to do well, because he's incredibly biased um with what what companies are working with, NVIDIA or not, and um I don't know. You just don't want to follow anyone blindly um think critically about these things.

SPEAKER_01 56:28

So no, I I just pulled up uh Marvell Technologies and and I don't know if you want to switch to my screen real quick, but sort of this is the reason that you know um uh we created the Earnings Hub score, is so that we can get a quick look at uh, you know, the fundamentals. And the the fundamentals are not super exciting in my in my view, especially after the run-up, because of what he said, because all of this happened in the past few days since Jensen um talked about it. Uh but when you look at sort of the uh revenue and earnings growth, this is very, very impressive revenue growth, um phenomenal, uh 2.7 billion uh on top of a $2.4 billion quarter to quarter. But these numbers pale in comparison, and and even the growth percentage pales in comparison to, let's say, for example, a micron. Um and if all of this is cyclical and due to an AI drive that, or let's call it an AI bubble for some reason. You know, if if you think that there we might be in an AI bubble and the bubble bursts, well, the then all of these companies are going to get affected. But the ones that are gonna get affected the most are the ones that have the worst price earnings ratios, price sales ratios, uh, whose revenues are not growing as fast. Um, so that's the reason I'm I would be much more cautious personally uh on a on a name like uh Marvell Technologies than, for example, Micron. So like looking looking at the sort of forward PE of 79, even Nvidia itself to me looks way more attractive with a forward PE of 23. Um, you know, obviously I've talked about Meta, has a forward PE of 20, it's extremely attractive. And then when you look at Micron, it has a forward PE of 12. Uh, the most attractive, in my opinion, of the group. So let's uh go go on to another one. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 58:32

Okay. Hi, Hamid. Was wondering if you have any stock that you're waiting to buy since most trades are you are now offloading. Can't wait for your next buy trade. Hope it's not bumpy.

SPEAKER_01 58:44

So my portfolio is public. You will, if you are a subscriber, you will receive a notification in the moment I buy something. Nothing is on my immediate radar that uh uh that I would buy, but you might be disappointed in that uh it might be bumble that I buy more of. Um I I think people uh hate it when I buy things that are going down or that have not done well. Which are the best purchases? They they they often turn out to be the best purchases, yeah. So it's pretty it's pretty funny.

SPEAKER_00 59:17

Okay, you ready?

SPEAKER_01 59:18

Let's go.

SPEAKER_00 59:20

Um, Hamid, how do you decide how much to trim and at what pace as Micron keeps moving higher?

SPEAKER_01 59:28

I like uh round numbers. So I trim in round numbers. Uh but um uh yeah, I mean it's it usually turns out to be, you know, like uh small percentages of it uh of my holdings. Um but um uh largely it's a combination of whether I think the company is still severely undervalued, in Micron's case, undervalued still, uh, but also is it too big of a portion of my portfolio? Uh Dustin had this sort of like three-step framework where is has it gone up uh enough for me to sort of consider taking some profits off? Um have I held it long enough to where it uh uses long-term capital gains instead of short-term capital gains for tax purposes? Uh and is it too high of a percentage of my portfolio? Uh so those three things are sort of like, yeah. I mean, it's it's what I naturally do. So like when you when you sort of like uh itemize demos, like, yeah, this is this is spot on. Um so in my micron trim, for example, uh, I I actually trimmed some of the shares that I have bought in my IRA. So the trim actually had zero tax consequences for for me.

SPEAKER_03 1:00:46

Yeah, the the way I think about trimming is either I'll just do like a 2% trim or I'll trim so it's in line with my uh allocation target. So like if something is really running and maybe it's like at 25% of my portfolio, but I really want it to be 20% of my portfolio, I'll just uh trim that 5%. Right.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:10

You ready? Excellent.

SPEAKER_03 1:01:11

Let's do it.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:13

Okay. Hameed, put your fortune teller hat on. This person, I definitely missed Micron. Are you seeing anything in the AI sector you see as undervalued that has not seen a jump like Micron yet?

SPEAKER_01 1:01:28

Well, if if I did uh and I had huge conviction in it, I would uh I would be buying it. Um I have been buying Meta uh most recently. Um I sold some Rocket Lab shares just the other day and bought some meta, increased my meta position by close to 10 per 10%, uh if I'm not mistaken. So um I I like Meta, uh Meta's um uh positioning. But you know, it's these things are hard to predict as to when something will happen or like what the price of something will be. Micron itself is still like seems like very attractive to me. Like if I didn't have any micron, I would still consider buying some.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:16

Ready?

SPEAKER_01 1:02:17

Yep, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:18

Okay, this is for Dustin. I have a question for Dustin. How do you feel about your Rivian buy at 1269?

SPEAKER_03 1:02:26

He's a genius. Um, how do I feel? I feel great. Um, no, it was definitely uh lucky. I did not think that was going to be the local low. Um it was like I used some very basic TA technical analysis of where does Rivian typically have some decent support historically, which was not 1269, it was 1290. And I just got the alert and then saw it when the price happened to be at 1269. Um but yeah, it was mostly luck. The other thing, uh, the other metric in my head, which is my own metric, is the stupid meter, which is how stupid is the the current price of a stock and should I be selling or buying based on that, right? So like it just seemed so incredibly low, especially given that R2 was about to launch. And at the time we didn't know that it was launching uh on the 9th, but we knew it was gonna happen anytime soon. Um so it ranked very high on the stupid meter of this is this is just too low. So I I increased my uh position by 70% there. Um, but yeah, mostly luck.

SPEAKER_01 1:03:48

You know what's funny is that uh for the vast majority of people, it works the exact opposite when when the stock goes down like that, that that's when they lose the conviction the most and they end up exiting at lows. Um and it's and oftentimes they come in at the very highs of uh of a stock. And nobody wants to buy bumble at $2.80, right? It's like the fact that this company has double the revenue of its market cap. It's it's kind of crazy. I mean, like, show me one other company that has double the revenues of its market cap. Um you know, I don't I don't know of any, uh especially profitable companies. So especially in software and tech. Uh so you know, this is but you know, take bumble to $12 a share, everybody was is gonna want in on that, you know, as it's going up. Um it'll be it'll be funny on the other side, assuming it makes it, you know, it might not, who knows? But if it makes it and uh uh starts going up, by the time it hits 10, all of a sudden, you know, and and it has raised, you know, something like 300% in the in in the course of 12 months, all of a sudden everybody will be interested. So um, should we take one more or should we wrap it up here?

SPEAKER_00 1:05:12

Uh let's take one more.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:14

One more. All right, let's do it.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:16

Um let me there. We've got so many, so I'm just gonna. There was one that I really wanted to do. Um sorry about that. Just okay. Um gosh, Hamid, you threw me off. There's no blame Hamid.

SPEAKER_03 1:05:37

He did he did nothing about that.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:39

I'm gonna blame Hamid. Umid, how do you see Sony, which didn't participate in this AI or tech rally at all? It's going to be in almost everything, whether it's drones and robotics, etc.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:53

Um, I have not looked at Sony at all. Um and you know, it's a Japanese company, obviously. Uh I I prefer to focus on US-based companies. Um I don't know. Have you looked at Sony at all, Dustin?

SPEAKER_03 1:06:08

So, yeah. So years ago I looked at Sony just because I like they they touch so many things that I just think they're a fascinating company, right? Like my headphones are Sony, like they obviously sell PlayStation, which is super popular. They're in the movie industry. Um they do drones and robotics. So I I like how much breadth there is to their business. Um because I think it's all a lot of what they attack, they do really well um in uh from a product perspective. Uh but recently I I haven't really given them much of a thought or or looked into them uh too much. Um but I do think they're a fascinating business.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:57

All right, Adrian, is there anything else that you want to get in there?

SPEAKER_00 1:07:04

No, we've got so many. We'll just call it now.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:07

Okay. Well, uh sorry guys. We'll end it there. Any final words there, Dustin? Thanks everyone.

SPEAKER_03 1:07:15

My final words, yes, is thank you for listening. I think we had like record live listenership um uh this time around. So we really uh appreciate it and hopefully we're helping you uh you know learn how to fish as opposed to telling you or like giving you the fish. You know what I mean? And when I say we, I really mean Hamid, right? I'm just the comedic value.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:40

Uh I'm I'm amazed. I keep expecting our uh viewership to go to zero every every episode, but uh it's been fun to watch uh us getting in growing viewer base. Thanks everyone for um tuning in and telling your friends about it. It's awesome, it's been an awesome journey. Oh, by the way, I will be traveling um for the next few weeks. I'm still gonna try to do these episodes. I'm gonna be in Europe. Uh huge time zone difference. So for me, it'll probably be like uh nine or ten o'clock at night when I do the episodes, but I'm gonna try to do them still. Um, but just in case something goes off or um my lighting is not perfect. Or it won't be shipped in a day or whatever. Yeah. But uh but yeah, it'll be it'll be fun. So all right, guys. Thanks everyone. Bye. Bye.